High/Low: Who am I Higher/Lower on Than Most

Every draft evaluator looks at players differently. During the 2019 Senior Bowl, you could have asked six different people who were the best QB that week and got six different answers. So, surely I will have some players rated much higher than most and some players ranked lower than most. However, after I looked at Arif Hasan’s piece on the consensus Top 300 for The Athletic ($), I was shocked at how far off I was on about 30-40 prospects.

Below I will look at five players I am higher on than most and five I am lower on.

Let me preface this by saying that a big cause for some of this was due to no athletic testing for roughly 200 players I watched. Another reason is I don’t have anything in my formula to account for position value (yet).

HIGHER

AJ Dillon – RB – Boston College

Dillon has been one of the most productive backs in college football over the last three years. At 247 pounds, Dillon ran a 4.53 forty at the Combine. His explosion testing was off the charts. However, we all know that the RB position has been devalued over the years. However, I think Dillon can not only make an impact as a rookie but compete for offensive rookie of the year.

DFD Overall: 30/Consensus Average: 112.5

Antonio Gibson – RB – Memphis

I fell in love with Gibson as a prospect after watching the SMU game. He scored on a run, a reception, and a kick return. The way he is built and the way he was used at Memphis reminded me of Davis Johnson as a prospect coming out of Northern Iowa. At the Senior Bowl, Gibson handled himself well in pass protection and showed he could run the ball from traditional sets. A player who can affect the passing game the way Gibson does should have great value in the NFL.

DFD Overall: 41/Consensus Average: 111.5

Michael Ojemudia – CB – Iowa

Ojemudia had tremendous production at Iowa and tested phenomenally at the Combine. I had some concerns with his intermediate cover skills on tape but he offset my concerns with a good Senior Bowl week. Ojemudia is likely to be taken on day three but I have no doubts he will make a team better as a rookie.

DFD Overall: 45/Consensus Average: 141

Khalil Davis – DL – Nebraska

Davis was outright dominant at times in Lincoln. He followed that up by dominating the Shrine Bowl practices. Davis benched 225 pounds 32 times in Indy and followed that up by running 4.75 at 309 pounds. He had 8 sacks in 11 games this past season. I am surprised more people aren’t talking about Davis.

DFD Overall: 56/Consensus Average: 201.5

Casey Toohill – EDGE – Stanford

I was late watching Toohill this year. I didn’t watch him until after he received a Combine invite. Toohill is a splash player. He was a late bloomer. Toohill only had 10 TFL and 6 sacks his first three years in Palo Alto. His senior year, he had 11.5 TFL and 8 sacks. At the Combine, he tested remarkably well. Toohill ran a 4.62 forty, he had the best short shuttle of all edge rushers that participated and the 3rd best three-cone.

DFD Overall: 86/Consensus Average: 216

LOWER

Yetur Gross-Matos – EDGE – Penn State

When I watched Gross-Matos, I never saw the guy that everyone said was this big-time pass rusher. YGM looked lackadaisical during the games I saw. He also did no testing.

DFD Overall: 123/Consensus Average: 23

Ashtyn Davis – S – Cal

Let me start by saying, I have usually struggled over the years evaluating safeties. This is why I was looking forward to seeing Davis at the Senior Bowl. However, an injury took him out of the game and the Combine. Davis had good production at Cal. From the tape I saw of Davis he can cover ground well but didn’t wow me like Xavier McKinney and Jeremy Chinn.

DFD Overall: 153/Consensus Average: 55

Jacob Eason – QB – Washington

Eason has the biggest arm of any QB in this class. He could throw it through a brick wall if he wanted to. Eason’s decision making at times is questionable at best. He is also a poor athlete. Eason should have stayed in school for another year.

DFD Overall: 173/Consensus Average: 69

Julian Okwara – EDGE – Notre Dame

Okwara was banged up this season. He only played in two of the Notre Dame games I watched this year, and he made little impact in those. Average production, no testing = low final grade.

DFD Overall: 193/Consensus Average: 64

Jake Fromm – QB – Georgia

Jake Fromm has what my buddy Pete Smith would call the “wuss arm”. Fromm is what they call a “winner”. Which is secret code for a QB who doesn’t have what it takes to be an NFL starter but I like him anyway? I just never saw it with Fromm. His ceiling is probably 2019 Andy Dalton. Fromm will probably make a decent living as a backup QB. I just am not calling his name until the 6th-7th round. He is another that should have stayed in school.

DFD Overall: 274/Consensus Average: 77

Image courtesy of Barry Chin/Boston Globe